Valerie A. Ramey

Home

Selected Discussions and Book Reviews


Research by Topic


 

Effects of Government Spending

Time Use

Economic Fluctuations

Growth

 

Capital Reallocation and Depreciation

Money and Credit

Wage Inequality and Trade

The Effects of Oil Shocks

 

Inventories

The U.S. Auto Industry

Search and Matching

Miscellaneous


Some of this material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under grant numbers 0617219, 0213089, SBR-9617437, and SES 90-22947. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.

Research by Date


The Macroeconomic Consequences of Infrastructure Investment, revised November 2020.     Supplemental Appendix     Data and Programs

Secular Stagnation or Technology Lull? , Journal of Policy Modeling, July-August 2020.

The Cyclical Behavior of the Price-Cost Markup with Christopher J. Nekarda, forthcoming Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking: 50th Anniversary Issue .    
Supplemental Appendix     November 2013 version (contains industry-level results)     June 2010 version     Markup series (Excel)     Markup series (Stata dataset)     Data and Programs

Ten Years After the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research? Journal of Economic Perspectives. Spring 2019     Data and Programs

Introduction to Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Future US GDP Growth with Charles Hulten. Charles R. Hulten and Valerie A. Ramey, eds. NBER Studies in Income and Wealth, Volume 77. University of Chicago Press, 2019.

Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from U.S. Historical Data with Sarah Zubairy, April 2018 Journal of Political Economy .
Supplementary Appendix     Defense Narrative     Data and Programs

Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation published in the 2016 Handbook of Macroeconomics. (This version includes a few corrigenda.)
Postscript to my Handbook Chapter     Sept. 2019. (This short note includes corrections, clarifications, revised thinking and summaries of some important subsequent research)

Data and Programs:     Monetary Shocks     Government Spending Shocks     Tax Shocks     Technology Shocks    

News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries with Rabah Arezki and Liugang Sheng, February 2017 Quarterly Journal of Economics .
Supplementary Appendix   Empirical programs and data   Model programs

Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater During Periods of Slack? Evidence from 20th Century Historical Data with Michael Owyang and Sarah Zubairy, AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2013.     Data and programs

Government Spending and Private Activity, 2013, Fiscal Policy After the Financial Crisis eds. Alberto Alesina and Francesco Giavazzi, University of Chicago Press.

The Impact of Hours Measures on the Trend and Cycle Behavior of Labor Productivity , revised July 2012

Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy? Journal of Economic Literature, September 2011.

Is there a "Tiger Mother" Effect? Time Use Across Ethnic Groups   revised March 2011.

Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's All in the Timing , Quarterly Journal of Economics February 2011.
Summary Data, U.S., 1939-2008
Stata program for VARs using Ramey-Shapiro dates
Stata program for VARs using news series 1939-2008
Stata program for VARs using Survey of Professional Forecaster Shocks
CSV file used by the VAR programs (Updated 1/10/2013 to renormalize the GDP deflator so that it is equal to the ratio of nominal to real GDP.)

Industry Evidence on the Effects of Government Spending with Christopher J. Nekarda, American Economic Journal - Macroeconomics , January 2011.     Data and Programs

Oil, Automobiles and the U.S. Economy: How Much Have Things Really Changed? with Daniel J. Vine, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010.
Two New Monthly Measures of Oil Shocks that Account for Non-Price Rationing (extended from 1959m1-2012m1)

The Rug Rat Race with Garey Ramey, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Spring 2010.     Data and Programs

Measures of Per Capita Hours and Their Implications for the Technology-Hours Debate with Neville Francis, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Sept. 2009.
Data
Latest BLS data on quarterly total hours and employment     Updated regularly by the BLS.

A Century of Work and Leisure with Neville Francis, American Economic Journal - Macroeconomics, July 2009.   Winner of the "Best Paper Prize"
Annual Data on Work, Home Production, Schooling and Leisure by Demographic Group, 1900-2005
Update through 2012 of hours spent in home production and market work for prime age groups

Time Spent in Home Production in the 20th Century United States, The Journal of Economic History , March 2009.
Annual Data on Home Production by Key Group, 1900 - 2000
Update through 2012 of hours spent in home production and market work for prime age groups    

Why Do Computers Depreciate? with Michael Geske and Matthew D. Shapiro Hard to Measure Goods and Services: Essays in Honor of Zvi Griliches , University of Chicago Press, 2007.

How Much has Leisure Really Increased Since 1965?     January 2007

Declining Volatility in the U.S. Automobile Industry with Daniel J. Vine, American Economic Review , December 2006.

Is the Technology-Driven Real Business Cycle Hypothesis Dead? Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations Revisited with Neville Francis, Journal of Monetary Economics Nov. 2005.     Theory appendix

Tracking the Source of the Decline in GDP Volatility: An Analysis of the Automobile Industry with Daniel J. Vine, Revised March 11, 2004.       Bresnahan-Ramey-Vine Automotive Assembly Plant Data

Why Do Real and Nominal Inventory-Sales Ratios Have Different Trends? with Daniel J. Vine, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking Oct. 2004. Working Paper version

The Source of Historical Fluctuations with Neville Francis, NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004.

Displaced Capital: A Study of Aerospace Plant Closings with Matthew D. Shapiro, Journal of Political Economy, Oct. 2001.

The Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission with Marvin J. Barth, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001. Errata

Market Responses to Interindustry Wage Differentials with George J. Borjas, July 2000

Inventories with Kenneth D. West, Handbook of Macroeconomics, 1999.

Capital Churning with Matthew D. Shapiro, July 1998.

Costly Capital Reallocation and the Effects of Government Spending with Matthew D. Shapiro, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, June 1998.

Cross Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth with Garey Ramey, American Economic Review, Dec. 1995.     Data on Cross-Country Volatility and Growth

Foreign Competition, Market Power and Wage Inequality with George J. Borjas, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110, Nov. 1995, pp. 1075-1110.

Liquidity Constraints and Intertemporal Consumer Optimization: Theory and Evidence from Durable Goods with Eun Young Chah and Ross M. Starr, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Feb. 1995.

Output Fluctuations at the Plant Level with Timothy F. Bresnahan, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Aug. 1994.     Bresnahan-Ramey-Vine Automotive Assembly Plant Data

The Relationship between Wage Inequality and Trade with George J. Borjas in The Changing Distribution of Income in an Open U.S. Economy eds. J.H. Bergstrand, T.F. Cosimano, J.W. Houck and R.G. Sheehan, 1994.

Time Series Evidence on the Sources of Trends in Wage Inequality with George J. Borjas, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1994.

How Important is the Credit Channel in the Transmission of Monetary Policy?, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Dec. 1993.

Segment Shifts and Capacity Utilization in the U.S. Automobile Industry with Timothy F. Bresnahan, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1993.

    Bresnahan-Ramey-Vine Automotive Assembly Plant Data

The Source of Fluctuations in Money: Evidence from Trade Credit , Journal of Monetary Economics, Nov. 1992.

Technology Commitment and the Cost of Business Cycles with Garey Ramey June 1991

Nonconvex Costs and the Behavior of Inventories, Journal of Political Economy, Apr. 1991.

Inventories as Factors of Production and Economic Fluctuations, American Economic Review, June 1989.

The Effects of Market Organization on Conspiracies in Restraint of Trade, with R. Mark Isaac and Arlington Williams, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, June 1984.


Effects of Government Spending



The Macroeconomic Consequences of Infrastructure Investment, revised November 2020.     Supplemental Appendix     Data and Programs

Ten Years After the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research? Journal of Economic Perspectives. Spring 2019     Data and Programs

Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from U.S. Historical Data with Sarah Zubairy, April 2018 Journal of Political Economy .
Supplementary Appendix     Defense Narrative     Data and Programs

Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation published in the 2016 Handbook of Macroeconomics. (This version includes a few corrigenda.)
Postscript to my Handbook Chapter     Sept. 2019. (This short note includes corrections, clarifications, revised thinking and summaries of some important subsequent research)

Data and Programs:     Monetary Shocks     Government Spending Shocks     Tax Shocks     Technology Shocks    

Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater During Periods of Slack? Evidence from 20th Century Historical Data with Michael Owyang and Sarah Zubairy, AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2013.     Data and programs

Government Spending and Private Activity, 2013, Fiscal Policy After the Financial Crisis eds. Alberto Alesina and Francesco Giavazzi, University of Chicago Press.

Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy? Journal of Economic Literature, September 2011.

Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's All in the Timing , Quarterly Journal of Economics February 2011.
Summary Data, U.S., 1939-2008
Stata program for VARs using Ramey-Shapiro dates
Stata program for VARs using news series 1939-2008
Stata program for VARs using Survey of Professional Forecaster Shocks
CSV file used by the VAR programs (Updated 1/10/2013 to renormalize the GDP deflator so that it is equal to the ratio of nominal to real GDP.)

Industry Evidence on the Effects of Government Spending with Christopher J. Nekarda, American Economic Journal - Macroeconomics , January 2011.     Data and Programs

Costly Capital Reallocation and the Effects of Government Spending with Matthew D. Shapiro, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, June 1998.


Time Use



Summary of my time use research in the NBER Reporter

Is there a "Tiger Mother" Effect? Time Use Across Ethnic Groups   revised March 2011.

The Rug Rat Race with Garey Ramey, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Spring 2010.     Data and Programs

A Century of Work and Leisure with Neville Francis, American Economic Journal - Macroeconomics, July 2009.   Winner of the "Best Paper Prize"
Annual Data on Work, Home Production, Schooling and Leisure by Demographic Group, 1900-2005
Update through 2012 of hours spent in home production and market work for prime age groups

Time Spent in Home Production in the 20th Century United States, The Journal of Economic History , March 2009.
Annual Data on Home Production by Key Group, 1900 - 2000
Update through 2012 of hours spent in home production and market work for prime age groups    

How Much has Leisure Really Increased Since 1965? January 2007




Economic Fluctuations



Secular Stagnation or Technology Lull? , Journal of Policy Modeling, July-August 2020.

The Cyclical Behavior of the Price-Cost Markup with Christopher J. Nekarda, forthcoming Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking: 50th Anniversary Issue .    
Supplemental Appendix     November 2013 version (contains industry-level results)     June 2010 version     Markup series (Excel)     Markup series (Stata dataset)     Data and Programs

Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation published in the 2016 Handbook of Macroeconomics. (This version includes a few corrigenda.)
Postscript to my Handbook Chapter     Sept. 2019. (This short note includes corrections, clarifications, revised thinking and summaries of some important subsequent research)

Data and Programs:     Monetary Shocks     Government Spending Shocks     Tax Shocks     Technology Shocks    

News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries with Rabah Arezki and Liugang Sheng, February 2017 Quarterly Journal of Economics .
Supplementary Appendix   Empirical programs and data   Model programs

The Impact of Hours Measures on the Trend and Cycle Behavior of Labor Productivity , revised July 2012

Measures of Per Capita Hours and Their Implications for the Technology-Hours Debate with Neville Francis, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Sept. 2009.
Data
Latest BLS data on quarterly total hours and employment     Updated regularly by the BLS.

Is the Technology-Driven Real Business Cycle Hypothesis Dead? Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations Revisited with Neville Francis, Journal of Monetary Economics Nov. 2005.     Theory appendix

Tracking the Source of the Decline in GDP Volatility: An Analysis of the Automobile Industry with Daniel J. Vine, Revised March 11, 2004.       Bresnahan-Ramey-Vine Automotive Assembly Plant Data

The Source of Historical Fluctuations with Neville Francis, NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004.

Cross Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth with Garey Ramey, American Economic Review, Dec. 1995.     Data on Cross-Country Volatility and Growth

Technology Commitment and the Cost of Business Cycles with Garey Ramey June 1991

Nonconvex Costs and the Behavior of Inventories, Journal of Political Economy, Apr. 1991.

Inventories as Factors of Production and Economic Fluctuations, American Economic Review, June 1989.

Output Fluctuations at the Plant Level with Timothy F. Bresnahan, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Aug. 1994.     Bresnahan-Ramey-Vine Automotive Assembly Plant Data


Growth



The Macroeconomic Consequences of Infrastructure Investment, revised November 2020.     Supplemental Appendix     Data and Programs

Secular Stagnation or Technology Lull? , Journal of Policy Modeling, July-August 2020.

Introduction to Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Future US GDP Growth with Charles Hulten. Charles R. Hulten and Valerie A. Ramey, eds. NBER Studies in Income and Wealth, Volume 77. University of Chicago Press, 2019.

A Century of Work and Leisure with Neville Francis, American Economic Journal - Macroeconomics, July 2009.   Winner of the "Best Paper Prize"
Annual Data on Work, Home Production, Schooling and Leisure by Demographic Group, 1900-2005
Update through 2012 of hours spent in home production and market work for prime age groups

Time Spent in Home Production in the 20th Century United States, The Journal of Economic History , March 2009.
Annual Data on Home Production by Key Group, 1900 - 2000
Update through 2012 of hours spent in home production and market work for prime age groups    

How Much has Leisure Really Increased Since 1965? January 2007

The Source of Historical Fluctuations with Neville Francis, NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004.

Cross Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth with Garey Ramey, American Economic Review, Dec. 1995.     Data on Cross-Country Volatility and Growth

Technology Commitment and the Cost of Business Cycles with Garey Ramey June 1991


The U.S. Auto Industry



Oil, Automobiles and the U.S. Economy: How Much Have Things Really Changed? with Daniel J. Vine, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010.
Two New Monthly Measures of Oil Shocks that Account for Non-Price Rationing (extended from 1959m1-2012m1)

Declining Volatility in the U.S. Automobile Industry with Daniel J. Vine, American Economic Review , December 2006.

Tracking the Source of the Decline in GDP Volatility: An Analysis of the Automobile Industry with Daniel J. Vine, Revised March 11, 2004.       Bresnahan-Ramey-Vine Automotive Assembly Plant Data

Output Fluctuations at the Plant Level with Timothy F. Bresnahan, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Aug. 1994.     Bresnahan-Ramey-Vine Automotive Assembly Plant Data

Segment Shifts and Capacity Utilization in the U.S. Automobile Industry with Timothy F. Bresnahan, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1993.

    Bresnahan-Ramey-Vine Automotive Assembly Plant Data


The Effects of Oil Shocks



News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries with Rabah Arezki and Liugang Sheng, February 2017 Quarterly Journal of Economics .
Supplementary Appendix   Empirical programs and data   Model programs

Discussion of Baumeister and Kilian "Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is this Time Different?"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Fall 2017.

Oil, Automobiles and the U.S. Economy: How Much Have Things Really Changed? with Daniel J. Vine, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010.
Two New Monthly Measures of Oil Shocks that Account for Non-Price Rationing (extended from 1959m1-2012m1)

Segment Shifts and Capacity Utilization in the U.S. Automobile Industry with Timothy F. Bresnahan, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1993.

    Bresnahan-Ramey-Vine Automotive Assembly Plant Data

Inventories



Declining Volatility in the U.S. Automobile Industry with Daniel J. Vine, American Economic Review , December 2006.

Tracking the Source of the Decline in GDP Volatility: An Analysis of the Automobile Industry with Daniel J. Vine, Revised March 11, 2004.       Bresnahan-Ramey-Vine Automotive Assembly Plant Data

Why Do Real and Nominal Inventory-Sales Ratios Have Different Trends? with Daniel J. Vine, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking Oct. 2004. Working Paper version

Inventories with Kenneth D. West, Handbook of Macroeconomics, 1999.Working Paper version

Segment Shifts and Capacity Utilization in the U.S. Automobile Industry with Timothy F. Bresnahan, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1993.

    Bresnahan-Ramey-Vine Automotive Assembly Plant Data

Nonconvex Costs and the Behavior of Inventories, Journal of Political Economy, Apr. 1991.

Inventories as Factors of Production and Economic Fluctuations, American Economic Review, June 1989.




Capital Reallocation and Depreciation



Why Do Computers Depreciate? with Michael Geske and Matthew D. Shapiro Hard to Measure Goods and Services: Essays in Honor of Zvi Griliches , University of Chicago Press, 2007.

Displaced Capital: A Study of Aerospace Plant Closings with Matthew D. Shapiro, Journal of Political Economy, Oct. 2001.

Costly Capital Reallocation and the Effects of Government Spending with Matthew D. Shapiro, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, June 1998.

Capital Churning with Matthew D. Shapiro, July 1998


Money and Credit



The Cyclical Behavior of the Price-Cost Markup with Christopher J. Nekarda, forthcoming Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking: 50th Anniversary Issue .    
Supplemental Appendix     November 2013 version (contains industry-level results)     June 2010 version     Markup series (Excel)     Markup series (Stata dataset)     Data and Programs

Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation published in the 2016 Handbook of Macroeconomics. (This version includes a few corrigenda.)
Postscript to my Handbook Chapter     Sept. 2019. (This short note includes corrections, clarifications, revised thinking and summaries of some important subsequent research)

Data and Programs:     Monetary Shocks     Government Spending Shocks     Tax Shocks     Technology Shocks    

The Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission with Marvin J. Barth, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001. Errata

How Important is the Credit Channel in the Transmission of Monetary Policy?, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Dec. 1993.

The Source of Fluctuations in Money: Evidence from Trade Credit , Journal of Monetary Economics, Nov. 1992.




Wage Inequality and Trade



Market Responses to Interindustry Wage Differentials with George J. Borjas, July 2000

Foreign Competition, Market Power and Wage Inequality with George J. Borjas, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110, Nov. 1995, pp. 1075-1110.

The Relationship between Wage Inequality and Trade with George J. Borjas in The Changing Distribution of Income in an Open U.S. Economy eds. J.H. Bergstrand, T.F. Cosimano, J.W. Houck and R.G. Sheehan, 1994.

Time Series Evidence on the Sources of Trends in Wage Inequality with George J. Borjas, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1994.




Miscellaneous



Liquidity Constraints and Intertemporal Consumer Optimization: Theory and Evidence from Durable Goods with Eun Young Chah and Ross M. Starr, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Feb. 1995.

The Effects of Market Organization on Conspiracies in Restraint of Trade, with R. Mark Isaac and Arlington Williams, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, June 1984.




Search and Matching

A Brief History of the Search and Matching Literature  (updated February 22, 2011)


Selected Discussions and Book Reviews



Discussion of Guren, McKay, Nakamura, Steinsson "What Do We Learn from Cross-Sectional Empirical Estimates in Macroeconomics?"NBER Macro Annual April 2020.

Fiscal Policy: Tax and Spending Multipliers in the United States Chapter 9 in Evolution or Revolution: Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy After the Great Recession, edited by Olivier Blanchard and Lawrence H. Summers, MIT Press and Peterson Institute for International Economics, MIT Press: Cambridge, MA, 2019.

Discussion of Athanasios Orphanides "Monetary Policy Strategy and its Communication," Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Jackson Hole Symposium August 2019, forthcoming.

Discussion of Jan Van Reenen "Increasing Differences between Firms: Market Power and the Macro-Economy," Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Jackson Hole Symposium August 2018.

Discussion of Coibion, Gorodnichenko, Ulate "The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential GDP"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Fall 2018.

Discussion of Charles, Hurst, and Schwartz "The Transformation of Manufacturing and the Decline in US Employment"NBER Macro Annual 2018.

Discussion of Miranda-Agrippino and Ricco "The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks", AEA Meetings 2018 - Slides 2018.

Discussion of Baumeister and Kilian "Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is this Time Different?"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Fall 2017.

Discussion of Miyamoto-Nguyen-Sergeyev "Government Spending Multipliers Under the Zero Lower Bound" NBER Japan Project, July 2017 - Slides.

Discussion of Acemoglu-Restrepo "Demographics and Robots" NBER July 2017 - Slides.

Review of Free Time: The Forgotten American Dreamby Benjamin Hunnicutt, in The Journal of Economic History, December 2013.

Discussion of DeLong and Summers "Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy" Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2012.

Review of The Big Ditch: How American Took, Built, Ran and Ultimately Gave Away the Panama Canal by Maurer and Yu, in Journal of Economic Literature, December 2011.

Discussion of Leigh, Guajardo, and Pescatori "Will It Hurt? Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation" NBER November 2010- Slides.

Discussion of Nick Bloom "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks: Firm Level Estimation and a 9/11 Simulation", NBER July 2006.