Jeffrey Clemens

Associate Professor – Department of Economics

Phone: (858) 534-5713

Email: jeffclemens@ucsd.edu

Research Statement

Research Statement of Jeffrey Clemens

Published and Forthcoming Papers

The Heterogeneous Effects of Large and Small Minimum Wage Changes: Evidence Using a Partially Pre-Committed Analysis Plan (with Michael R. Strain). Journal of Labor Economics, Forthcoming. Previously distributed as National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 29264, which can be described as the final project report for our pre-committed analysis plans, which are concisely presented, discussed, and further analyzed in our paper for the Journal of Labor Economics.
Demand Shocks, Procurement Policies, and the Nature of Medical Innovation: Evidence from Wartime Prosthetic Device Patents (with Parker Rogers). Review of Economics and Statistics. Forthcoming.
How Did Federal Aid to States and Localities Affect Testing and Vaccine Delivery? (with Philip Hoxie, John Kearns, and Stan Veuger). Journal of Public Economics, Forthcoming.
Spatial Spillovers and the Effects of Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from Pandemic-Era Federal Aid for State and Local Governments. (with John Kearns, Beatrice Lee, and Stan Veuger). Spatial Economic Analysis. Forthcoming.
How Important are Minimum Wage Increases in Increasing the Wages of Minimum Wage Workers? (with Michael R. Strain) Contemporary Economic Policy. 2023.
Do Higher Minimum Wages Decrease Union Membership in Minimum-Wage-Intensive Industries? (with Michael R. Strain) Applied Economics Letters. 2023.
Understanding "Wage Theft": Evasion and Avoidance Responses to Minimum Wage Increases. (with Michael R. Strain) Labour Economics. December 2022.
Does Measurement Error Explain the Increase in Subminimum Wage Payment Following Minimum Wage Increases? (with Michael R. Strain) Economics Letters. 2022.
Politics and the Distribution of Federal Funds: Evidence from Federal Legislation in Response to COVID-19 (with Stan Veuger). Journal of Public Economics. 204(C). 2021.
When Is Tinkering with Safety Net Programs Harmful to Beneficiaries? (with Michael J. Wither). Southern Economic Journal. First Published Online September 19, 2021.
Medicaid and Fiscal Federalism During the COVID-19 Pandemic (with Benedic Ippolito and Stan Veuger). Public Budgeting & Finance. 41(4): 94-109. 2021.
How Do Firms Respond to Minimum Wage Increases? Understanding the Relevance of Non-employment Margins. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 35(1): 51-72. 2021
Dropouts Need Not Apply? The Minimum Wage and Skill Upgrading (with Lisa B. Kahn and Jonathan Meer). Journal of Labor Economics. 39(S1): 107-149. 2021
How Would Medicare for All Affect Health System Capacity? Evidence from Medicare for Some. (with Joshua Gottlieb and Jeffrey Hicks). Tax Policy and the Economy Volume 35: 225-262. 2021.
Implications of the Covid-19 Pandemic for State Government Tax Revenues (with Stan Veuger). National Tax Journal. 73(3): 619-644. 2020.
Implications of Schedule Irregularity as a Minimum Wage Response Margin (with Michael R. Strain). Applied Economics Letters. 27(20): 1691-1694. 2020.
Uncompensated Care and the Collapse of Hospital Payment Regulation: An Application of the Tinbergen Rule. (with Benedic Ippolito). Public Finance Review. 47(6): 1002-1041. 2019. Note: Link is to National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 23758.
Cross-Country Evidence on Labor Market Institutions and Young Adult Employment through the Financial Crisis. Southern Economic Journal. 86(2): 573-612. 2019.
The Minimum Wage and the Great Recession: Evidence of Effects on the Employment and Income Trajectories of Low-Skilled Workers (with Michael J. Wither). Journal of Public Economics, 170(February): 53-67. 2019. Previously distributed as National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 20724. Prior version with theoretical framework. NBER working paper 21830 (Contains CPS analysis that had once been integrated into a revision, but was removed from published version).
Implications of Medicaid Financing Reform for State Government Budgets (with Benedic Ippolito). Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 32: 135-172. 2018.
The Short-Run Employment Effects Of Recent Minimum Wage Changes: Evidence from the American Community Survey (with Michael R. Strain). Contemporary Economic Policy, 36(4): 711-722. 2018.
Do Health Insurers Innovate? Evidence from the Anatomy of Physician Payments (with Joshua Gottlieb and Timea Molnar). Journal of Health Economics, 55C: 153-167. 2017.
In the Shadow of a Giant: Medicare's Influence on Private Payment Systems (with Joshua Gottlieb). Journal of Political Economy, 125(1): 1 - 39. 2017. Online Appendix Material. Previously distributed as National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 19503.
Risks to the Returns to Medical Innovation: The Case of Myriad Genetics. (with Stan Veuger). Contemporary Economic Policy, 35(2): 345-357. 2017. Note: Link is to National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 21469.
Medicare Payment Cuts Continue to Restrain Inflation (with Joshua Gottlieb and Adam Shapiro ). FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016-15, May 2016.
Redistribution through Minimum Wage Regulation: An Analysis of Program Linkages and Budgetary Spillovers . Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 30: 163-189. 2016.
Regulatory Redistribution in the Market for Health Insurance. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 7(2): 109-34. 2015. Note: Link is to National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 19904.
Who Pays for Public Employee Health Costs? (with David M. Cutler). Journal of Health Economics, 38C: 65-76. 2014.
Note: Link is to National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 19574.
How Much Do Medicare Cuts Reduce Inflation? (with Joshua Gottlieb and Adam Shapiro ). FRBSF Economic Letter, 2014-28, September 2014.
Do Physicians' Financial Incentives Affect Treatment Patterns and Patient Health? (with Joshua Gottlieb). American Economic Review, 104(4): 1320-1349. 2014.
An Analysis of Economic Warfare. American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 103(3): 523-527. 2013.
The Rise of the States: U.S. Fiscal Decentralization in the Postwar Period (with Katherine Baicker and Monica Singhal). Journal of Public Economics, 96(11-12): 1079-1091. 2012.
Fiscal Policy Multipliers on Subnational Government Spending (with Stephen Miran). American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 4(2): 46-68. 2012.
Opium in Afghanistan: Prospects for the Success of Source Country Drug Control Policies. The Journal of Law and Economics, 51(3): 407-432. 2008.
Capping the Mortgage Interest Deduction (with John Anderson and Andrew Hanson). National Tax Journal, 60(4): 769-785. 2007.

Working Papers

Health Impacts of Federal Pandemic Aid to State and Local Governments. (with Anwita Mahajan). 2025.
Aid for Incumbents: The Electoral Consequences of COVID-19 Relief (with Julia A. Payson and Stan Veuger). National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 32962. 2024.
Physician Practice Preferences and Healthcare Expenditures: Evidence from Commercial Payers (with Pierre-Thomas Léger, Yashna Nandan and Robert Town). National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 30168. 2024.
Divergent Paths: Differential Impacts of Minimum Wage Increases on Individuals with Disabilities (with Melissa Gentry and Jonathan Meer). National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 33437. 2025.
Was Pandemic Fiscal Relief Effective Fiscal Stimulus? Evidence from Aid to State and Local Governments (with Philip Hoxie and Stan Veuger). National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 30168. 2022.
Medicare and the Rise of American Medical Patenting: The Economics of User-Driven Innovation. (with Morten Olsen).
Public Policy and Participation in Political Interest Groups: An Analysis of Minimum Wages, Labor Unions, and Effective Advocacy (with Michael R. Strain). National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 27902. 2020.
The Minimum Wage, Fringe Benefits, and Worker Welfare. (with Lisa B. Kahn and Jonathan Meer). National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 24635. 2018. Response to Cengiz.
Estimating the Employment Effects of Recent Minimum Wage Changes: Early Evidence, an Interpretative Framework, and a Pre-Commitment to Future Analysis. (with Michael R. Strain) National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 23084. 2017.
The Effect of U.S. Health Insurance Expansions on Medical Innovation. National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 19761. 2013.
The Low-Skilled Labor Market from 2002 to 2014: Measurement and Mechanisms.

Replication Materials for Supplemental Minimum Wage Analyses

Supplements

The COVID-19 pandemic and the revenues of state and local governments: An update (with Stan Veuger). AEI Economic Perspectives. September 2020.
US fiscal federalism during the COVID-19 pandemic. (with Benedic Ippolito and Stan Veuger) AEI Economic Policy Working Paper Series 2020-16. 2020.
Just the Facts: Demographic and Cross-Country Dimensions of the Employment Slump (with Michael J. Wither). Supplements other work on the minimum wage and the low-skilled labor market.
Evaluating Economic Warfare: Lessons from Efforts to Suppress the Afghan Opium Trade. Supplements other work on source-country drug control policy.
State Fiscal Adjustment During Times of Stress: Possible Causes of the Severity and Composition of Budget Cuts. Supplements other work on state and local government finances.

Instructional and Policy Oriented Writing

Minimum Wage Hikes Bring Trade-offs beyond Pay and Jobs. Book Chapter for The War on Prices. Cato Institute. Forthcoming
The COVID-19 Pandemic and Challenges Facing State and Local Governments. The NBER Reporter. No. 2. June 2023.
Lessons from COVID-19 Aid to State and Local Governments for the Design of Federal Automatic Stabilizers. (with Stan Veuger) Chapter in Economic Policy in a More Uncertain World, Aspen Institute. January 2023.
We Gave States Too Much COVID Relief: How to avoid over-stimulating the economy in the next crisis. (with Stan Veuger) The Bulwark. January 25, 2023.
Covid-19 federal assistance to state and local governments and its consequences. (with Philip Hoxie and Stan Veuger). VoxEU. July 2022.
Remarks on the Fiscal Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic. Prepared for the ASHEcon Plenary Session titled “The Economics of the COVID-19 Response: What Worked, What Went Wrong and What’s Next?" June 28, 2022.
The economy is still in pandemic shock. But some state governments are flush with cash. (with Stan Veuger) Washington Post (Monkey Cage Blog). December 15, 2021.
An Unforced Error: How US Attempts to Suppress the Opium Trade Strengthened the Taliban. Modern War Institute. August 31, 2021.
Opium Suppression in Afghanistan Was a US-led Failure. (with Jeff Miron and Pedro Braga Soares). Reason. August 24, 2021.
Fiscal federalism and the COVID-19 shock in the US. (with Stan Veuger). AEIdeas Blog. February 2, 2021.
Cash talks: The need for incentives in vaccine delivery. (with Joshua Gottlieb). The Hill. February 1, 2021.
State and Local Governments Need Help: Pass COVID Relief Now. (with Stan Veuger and Benedic Ippolito) The Bulwark. December 11, 2020.
How the Civil War drove medical innovation – and the pandemic could, too. The Conversation. September 2020.
State and local government budgets are in better shape than expected. (with Stan Veuger). VoxEU. September 2020.
Procurement regimes and medical innovation. (with Parker Rogers). VoxEU. March 2020.
Expanding Health System Capacity in a Time of Crisis-Driven Demand: Policy Priorities Rooted in Economic Insights from Historical Experience.
Making Sense of the Minimum Wage: A Roadmap for Navigating Recent Research. CATO Institute. Policy Analysis NO. 867 May 14. 2019. PDF Available Here.
New Working Paper Set: Interpreting Recent Research on the Effects of Minimum Wage Increases Enacted During the Great Recession. Medium. June 14, 2017.
Medicaid Reform: The Elephant in the Room (Joint with Benedic Ippolito) Real Clear Health. January 4, 2017.
The Minimum Wage and the Market for Low-Skilled Labor: Why a Decade Can Make a Difference (SIEPR Policy Brief, February 2016).
Repeal of the Medicare Sustainable Growth Rate: Direct and Indirect Consequences. (Joint with Stan Veuger) AMA Journal of Ethics. Volume 17, Number 11: 1053-1058. November 2015.
Expanding Medicaid may also help to improve the coverage of Obamacare's health insurance exchanges (LSE's USAPP blog, June 2, 2015).
The Minimum Wage and the Great Recession: Evidence of Effects on the Employment and Income Trajectories of Low-Skilled Workers (Joint with Michael Wither. Cato Institute, Research Briefs in Economic Policy No. 22. March 18, 2015).
The minimum-wage and the US employment slump (Joint with Michael Wither. Voxeu, January 14, 2015).
Why State Decisions About Expanding Medicaid Matter For The Success Of Their Insurance Marketplaces (Scholars Strategy Network, Key Findings Brief, September 2014).
Who Pays for Public Employee Health Costs? (Joint with David Cutler. Cato Institute, Research Briefs in Economic Policy No. 6. July 23, 2014.)
How Medicare Shapes the U.S. Health Sector (Economics in Action, Spring 2014).
Health Reform and the Future of Medical Innovation (Scholars Strategy Network, Key Findings Brief, January 2014).
Implications of Physician Ethics, Billing Norms, and Service Cost Structures for Medicare's Fee Schedule (Written for Economics 140: The Economics of Health Care Producers).
Can Financing Reforms Reduce Costs While Improving Health Care Quality? (SIEPR Policy Brief, January 2012).

UC San Diego

Economics

Jeffrey Clemens

Associate Professor – Department of Economics

Research Statement

Published and Forthcoming Papers

Working Papers

Replication Materials for Supplemental Minimum Wage Analyses

Supplements

Instructional and Policy Oriented Writing