Jeffrey Clemens
Associate Professor – Department of Economics
Phone: (858) 534-5713
Email: jeffclemens@ucsd.edu
Research Statement
- Research Statement of Jeffrey Clemens
Published and Forthcoming Papers
- Demand Shocks, Procurement Policies, and the Nature of Medical
Innovation: Evidence from Wartime Prosthetic Device Patents (with Parker Rogers). Review of Economics and Statistics. Forthcoming.
- How Did Federal Aid to States and
Localities Affect Testing and Vaccine Delivery? (with Philip Hoxie, John Kearns, and Stan Veuger). Journal of Public Economics,
Forthcoming.
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Spatial Spillovers and the Effects of Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from Pandemic-Era Federal Aid for State and Local Governments.
(with John Kearns, Beatrice Lee, and Stan Veuger). Spatial Economic Analysis. Forthcoming.
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How Important are Minimum Wage Increases in Increasing the Wages of Minimum Wage Workers? (with Michael R. Strain) Contemporary Economic Policy. 2023.
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Do Higher Minimum Wages Decrease Union Membership in Minimum-Wage-Intensive Industries? (with Michael R. Strain) Applied Economics Letters. 2023.
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Understanding "Wage Theft": Evasion and Avoidance Responses to Minimum Wage Increases. (with Michael R. Strain) Labour Economics. December 2022.
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Does Measurement Error Explain the Increase in Subminimum Wage Payment Following Minimum Wage Increases? (with Michael R. Strain) Economics Letters. 2022.
- Politics and the Distribution of Federal Funds: Evidence from Federal
Legislation in Response to COVID-19 (with Stan Veuger). Journal of Public Economics. 204(C). 2021.
- When Is Tinkering with Safety Net Programs Harmful to
Beneficiaries? (with Michael J. Wither). Southern Economic Journal. First Published Online September 19, 2021.
- Medicaid and Fiscal Federalism During the COVID-19
Pandemic (with Benedic Ippolito and Stan Veuger). Public Budgeting & Finance. 41(4): 94-109. 2021.
- How Do Firms Respond to Minimum Wage
Increases? Understanding the Relevance of Non-employment Margins. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 35(1): 51-72. 2021
- Dropouts Need Not Apply?
The Minimum Wage and Skill Upgrading (with Lisa B. Kahn and Jonathan Meer). Journal of Labor Economics. 39(S1): 107-149. 2021
- How Would Medicare for All Affect Health System Capacity?
Evidence from Medicare for Some. (with Joshua Gottlieb and Jeffrey Hicks). Tax Policy and the Economy Volume 35: 225-262. 2021.
- Implications of the Covid-19 Pandemic
for State Government Tax Revenues (with Stan Veuger). National Tax Journal. 73(3): 619-644. 2020.
- Implications of Schedule Irregularity as
a Minimum Wage Response Margin (with Michael R. Strain). Applied Economics Letters. 27(20): 1691-1694. 2020.
- Uncompensated Care and the Collapse of Hospital Payment Regulation: An Application of the
Tinbergen Rule. (with Benedic Ippolito). Public Finance Review. 47(6): 1002-1041. 2019.
Note: Link is to National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 23758.
- Cross-Country Evidence on
Labor Market Institutions and Young Adult Employment through the Financial Crisis.
Southern Economic Journal. 86(2): 573-612. 2019.
- The Minimum Wage and the Great Recession:
Evidence of Effects on the Employment and Income Trajectories of Low-Skilled Workers (with Michael J. Wither). Journal of Public Economics,
170(February): 53-67. 2019. Previously distributed as National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 20724.
Prior version with theoretical framework.
NBER working paper 21830 (Contains CPS analysis that had once been integrated
into a revision, but was removed from published version).
- Implications of Medicaid Financing Reform for
State Government Budgets (with Benedic Ippolito).
Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 32: 135-172. 2018.
- The Short-Run Employment Effects Of
Recent Minimum Wage Changes: Evidence from the American Community Survey (with Michael R. Strain).
Contemporary Economic Policy, 36(4): 711-722. 2018.
- Do Health Insurers Innovate?
Evidence from the Anatomy of Physician Payments (with Joshua Gottlieb and Timea Molnar).
Journal of Health Economics, 55C: 153-167. 2017.
- In the Shadow of a Giant: Medicare's Influence on Private Payment Systems
(with Joshua Gottlieb). Journal of Political Economy, 125(1): 1 - 39. 2017.
Online Appendix Material.
Previously distributed as National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 19503.
- Risks to the Returns to Medical Innovation: The Case of Myriad Genetics.
(with Stan Veuger). Contemporary Economic Policy, 35(2): 345-357. 2017. Note: Link is to National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 21469.
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Medicare Payment Cuts Continue to Restrain Inflation (with Joshua Gottlieb and Adam Shapiro ). FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016-15, May 2016.
- Redistribution through Minimum Wage Regulation: An Analysis of
Program Linkages and Budgetary Spillovers . Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 30: 163-189. 2016.
- Regulatory Redistribution in the Market for Health Insurance.
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 7(2): 109-34. 2015.
Note: Link is to National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 19904.
- Who Pays for Public Employee Health Costs? (with David M. Cutler).
Journal of Health Economics, 38C: 65-76. 2014.
Note: Link is to National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 19574.
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How Much Do Medicare Cuts Reduce Inflation? (with Joshua Gottlieb and Adam Shapiro ). FRBSF Economic Letter, 2014-28, September 2014.
- Do Physicians' Financial Incentives Affect
Treatment Patterns and Patient Health? (with Joshua Gottlieb). American Economic Review, 104(4): 1320-1349. 2014.
- An Analysis of Economic Warfare.
American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 103(3): 523-527. 2013.
- The Rise of the States: U.S. Fiscal Decentralization
in the Postwar Period (with Katherine Baicker and Monica Singhal).
Journal of Public Economics, 96(11-12): 1079-1091. 2012.
- Fiscal Policy Multipliers on Subnational Government Spending
(with Stephen Miran). American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 4(2): 46-68. 2012.
- Opium in Afghanistan: Prospects for the Success of
Source Country Drug Control Policies.
The Journal of Law and Economics, 51(3): 407-432. 2008.
- Capping the Mortgage Interest Deduction
(with John Anderson and Andrew Hanson).
National Tax Journal, 60(4): 769-785. 2007.
Working Papers
- The Heterogeneous Effects of Large and Small Minimum Wage Changes:
Evidence over the Short and Medium Run Using a Pre-Analysis Plan (with Michael R. Strain). National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 29264. 2021.
- Was Pandemic Fiscal
Relief Effective Fiscal Stimulus? Evidence from Aid to State and Local Governments (with Philip Hoxie and Stan Veuger).
National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 30168. 2022.
- Medicare and the Rise of American Medical
Patenting: The Economics of User-Driven Innovation. (with Morten Olsen).
- Public Policy and Participation in Political Interest Groups: An Analysis
of Minimum Wages, Labor Unions, and Effective Advocacy (with Michael R. Strain). National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 27902. 2020.
- The Minimum Wage, Fringe Benefits, and Worker Welfare.
(with Lisa B. Kahn and Jonathan Meer). National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 24635. 2018.
Response to Cengiz.
- Estimating the Employment Effects of Recent Minimum Wage Changes: Early Evidence, an Interpretative Framework,
and a Pre-Commitment to Future Analysis. (with Michael R. Strain) National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 23084. 2017.
- The Effect of U.S. Health Insurance Expansions on Medical Innovation.
National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 19761. 2013.
- The Low-Skilled Labor Market from 2002 to 2014: Measurement and Mechanisms.
Replication Materials for Supplemental Minimum Wage Analyses
- Additional Evidence and Replication Code for Analyzing the Effects of Minimum Wage Increases Enacted During the
Great Recession. Replication Archive (with Michael J. Wither).
- Pitfalls in the Development of Falsification Tests: An Illustration from the Recent Minimum Wage
Literature. Replication Archive.
- The Minimum Wage and the Great Recession: A Response to
Zipperer and Recapitulation of the Evidence. Replication Archive.
Supplements
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The COVID-19 pandemic and the revenues of state and local governments: An update (with Stan Veuger). AEI Economic Perspectives. September 2020.
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US fiscal federalism during the COVID-19 pandemic. (with Benedic Ippolito and Stan Veuger) AEI Economic Policy Working Paper Series 2020-16. 2020.
- Just the Facts: Demographic and Cross-Country Dimensions
of the Employment Slump (with Michael J. Wither). Supplements other work on the minimum wage and the low-skilled labor market.
- Evaluating Economic Warfare: Lessons from Efforts
to Suppress the Afghan Opium Trade. Supplements other work on source-country drug control policy.
- State Fiscal Adjustment During Times of Stress:
Possible Causes of the Severity and Composition of Budget Cuts. Supplements other work on state and local government finances.
Instructional and Policy Oriented Writing
- Minimum Wage Hikes Bring Trade-offs beyond Pay and Jobs. Book Chapter for The War on Prices. Cato Institute. Forthcoming
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The COVID-19 Pandemic and Challenges Facing State and Local Governments. The NBER Reporter. No. 2. June 2023.
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Lessons from COVID-19 Aid to State and Local Governments for the Design of Federal Automatic Stabilizers. (with Stan Veuger) Chapter
in Economic Policy in a More Uncertain World, Aspen Institute. January 2023.
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We Gave States Too Much COVID Relief: How to avoid over-stimulating the economy in the next crisis. (with Stan Veuger) The Bulwark. January 25, 2023.
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Covid-19 federal assistance to state and local governments and its consequences. (with Philip Hoxie and Stan Veuger). VoxEU. July 2022.
- Remarks on the Fiscal Response
to the COVID-19 Pandemic. Prepared for the ASHEcon Plenary Session titled “The Economics of the COVID-19 Response: What
Worked, What Went Wrong and What’s Next?" June 28, 2022.
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The economy is still in pandemic shock. But some state governments are flush with cash. (with Stan Veuger) Washington Post (Monkey Cage Blog). December 15, 2021.
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An Unforced Error: How US Attempts to Suppress the Opium Trade Strengthened the Taliban. Modern War Institute. August 31, 2021.
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Opium Suppression in Afghanistan Was a US-led Failure. (with Jeff Miron and Pedro Braga Soares). Reason. August 24, 2021.
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Fiscal federalism and the COVID-19 shock in the US. (with Stan Veuger). AEIdeas Blog. February 2, 2021.
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Cash talks: The need for incentives in vaccine delivery. (with Joshua Gottlieb). The Hill. February 1, 2021.
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State and Local Governments Need Help: Pass COVID Relief Now. (with Stan Veuger and Benedic Ippolito)
The Bulwark. December 11, 2020.
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How the Civil War drove medical innovation – and the pandemic could, too. The Conversation. September 2020.
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State and local government budgets are in better shape than expected. (with Stan Veuger). VoxEU. September 2020.
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Procurement regimes and medical innovation. (with Parker Rogers). VoxEU. March 2020.
- Expanding Health System
Capacity in a Time of Crisis-Driven Demand: Policy Priorities Rooted in Economic Insights from Historical Experience.
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Making Sense of the Minimum Wage: A Roadmap for Navigating Recent Research. CATO Institute. Policy Analysis NO. 867 May 14. 2019.
PDF Available Here.
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New Working Paper Set: Interpreting Recent Research on the Effects of Minimum Wage Increases Enacted During the Great Recession. Medium. June 14, 2017.
- Medicaid Reform:
The Elephant in the Room (Joint with Benedic Ippolito) Real Clear Health. January 4, 2017.
- The Minimum Wage and the Market for Low-Skilled
Labor: Why a Decade Can Make a Difference (SIEPR Policy Brief, February 2016).
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Repeal of the Medicare Sustainable Growth Rate: Direct and Indirect Consequences. (Joint with Stan Veuger) AMA Journal of Ethics.
Volume 17, Number 11: 1053-1058. November 2015.
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Expanding Medicaid may also help to improve the coverage of Obamacare's health insurance exchanges (LSE's USAPP blog, June 2, 2015).
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The Minimum Wage and the Great Recession: Evidence of Effects on the Employment and Income Trajectories
of Low-Skilled Workers (Joint with Michael Wither. Cato Institute, Research Briefs in Economic Policy No. 22. March 18, 2015).
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The minimum-wage and the US employment slump (Joint with Michael Wither. Voxeu, January 14, 2015).
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Why State Decisions About Expanding Medicaid Matter For The Success Of Their Insurance Marketplaces (Scholars Strategy Network, Key Findings Brief, September 2014).
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Who Pays for Public Employee Health Costs? (Joint with David Cutler. Cato Institute, Research Briefs in Economic Policy No. 6. July 23, 2014.)
- How Medicare Shapes the U.S. Health Sector
(Economics in Action, Spring 2014).
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Health Reform and the Future of Medical Innovation (Scholars Strategy Network, Key Findings Brief, January 2014).
- Implications of Physician Ethics, Billing Norms,
and Service Cost Structures for Medicare's Fee Schedule (Written for Economics 140: The Economics of Health Care Producers).
- Can Financing Reforms Reduce Costs While Improving Health Care Quality?
(SIEPR Policy Brief, January 2012).
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