In the table below, an underlined item has links to the Web pages for that category. If you have access to a Web browser (Netscape or Internet Explorer, for example) from home, it is wise to create bookmarks for this site as well as the other link pages. If you are currently enrolled in this course, you can also get the bulletins, assignments, etc. by logging on to your sdcc4 account.
| CLASS MEETINGS | TTh 2:20 - 3:40 pm Peterson Hall 108 |
||||||||||||
| OFFICE AND HOURS | My office is Room 324, ECON building, Marshall College (Phone 534-6787). My office hours will be TTh 9 - 11 am in Room ECON 324. Variations from the above will be posted on the computer bulletin. The TAs' office hours will be posted on their doors and on the computer bulletin. | ||||||||||||
| TEXT | INTRODUCTORY ECONOMETRICS WITH APPLICATIONS, Fourth Edition (1998), by Ramu Ramanathan (available at the bookstore). This book will also serve as the text book for Econ 120C in Spring 1998. I have asked that copies of the book be placed on reserve at the UG library in Galbraith Hall. If you have access to the third edition and want to use that instead of the fourth edition, you are quite welcome to do so as long as you keep up with the actual references to the fourth edition pages and exercises. | ||||||||||||
| COURSE CONTENT | In this quarter, we will review probability and sampling theory from 120A and then go on to study in detail the estimation of economic relationships, tests of hypotheses, and forecasting, using a simple two-variable model. | ||||||||||||
| There will be three assignments, each of which will carry a weight of 5% towards the final grade. The assignments will involve both theoretical and empirical work. Joint work and free discussion are strongly encouraged. If you work as a team (no more than three people per team), submit a single set of answers and identify the team members. Each member will get the same grade assigned to the answers. If your name does not appear on any assignment turned in, you cannot add it later. If your name appears on two papers, the LOWER grade will be chosen. LATE PAPERS WILL CARRY A 25 PERCENT PENALTY. | |||||||||||||
| EXAMS | There will be two mid-term exams, one on the Thursday of the fifth week, February 5, 1998 (20% weight), and the second on the Thursday of the eighth week, February 26, 1998 (30% weight). The final exam (3 to 6 pm, Friday, March 20, 1998) will have a 35% weight. The exams will be closed book, but you can bring a SINGLE 4" by 6" index card on which you may copy down (on both sides) formulas, etc. It must be HAND-WRITTEN; photo reducing and pasting is not permitted. Bring a calculator (just a simple one will do, no need for scientific or business calculator). If you bring a solar calculator, be sure to sit directly under a light. All grading problems must be rectified within a week from the time an exam or assignment is returned. No regrading of exams will be allowed if they were written in pencil. If you write in pencil, however, you can pick up the exam from the T.A. in his/her office, check the grading immediately, and take care of complaints "before leaving the office." | ||||||||||||
| MAKE-UP EXAMS | I will generally not give incompletes or make-up exams, especially if you have 3-exam conflicts on finals. If for some reason a make-up exam is given, 10% of the score will be deducted as penalty. There is no penalty for medical absence, but a doctor's certificate is required. I ought to warn you that my make-up exams are usually harder. | ||||||||||||
| COURSE GRADE | The course grade will be assigned as follows. First, a weighted
average of numerical scores will be obtained. If the mean class score
is below 67.5 percent, points will be added to all scores to bring the
mean score to 67.5 percent. Then letter grades will be assigned using
the following percentage scale.
An adjusted grade will also be calculated according to the following procedure (this will be done only after the final exam). First, the exam (not assignment) in which you scored the lowest percentage points will be identified. This exam will then be given half the weight assigned to it and the other half equally divided between the remaining two exams. A new weighted average is then calculated. You will get the higher of the two grades. Finally, a few selected people very close to the border line might be pushed up if they have shown substantial improvement in the grade. However, don't expect any sympathy from me if you haven't turned in the homeworks. | ||||||||||||
| BULLETINS | We will be using the electronic mail (email) and bulletin board systems extensively for communication purposes. If there is an important message to be read, I will alert you in class. You should then sign up after class and see if you have mail or bulletins. FAILING TO DO THAT MAY BE DISASTROUS BECAUSE YOU WILL MISS IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENTS. My email address is ramu@weber.ucsd.edu. |
READING LIST
Chapter 1 Introduction
1.1 What is Econometrics? 1.2 Basic Ingredients of an Empirical Study 1.3 Empirical Project
Chapter 2 Review of Probability and Statistics
2.1 Random Variables and Probability Distributions
2.2 Mathematical Expectation, Mean, and Variance
2.3 Joint Probabilities, Covariance, and Correlation
2.4 Random Sampling and Sampling Distributions
2.5 Procedures for the Estimation of Parameters
2.6 Properties of Estimators
2.7 The Chi-square, t-, and F-distributions
2.8 Testing Hypotheses
2.9 Interval Estimation
2.A Appendix: Miscellaneous Derivations
2.A.1 Certain Useful Results on Summations
2.A.2 Multivariate Distributions
2.A.3 Maximization and Minimization
2.A.4 More on Estimation
Chapter 3 The Simple Linear Regression Model
3.1 The Basic Model
3.2 Estimation of the Basic Model by the Method of Ordinary
Least Squares (OLS)
3.3 Properties of Estimators
3.4 The Precision of the Estimators and the Goodness of Fit
3.5 Tests of Hypotheses
3.6 Scaling and Units of Measurement
3.7 Application: Estimating an Engel Curve Relation Between
Expenditure on Health Care and Income
3.8 Confidence Intervals
3.9 Forecasting
3.10 Causality in a Regression Model
3.11 Application: Relation Between Patents and the Expenditures on
Research and Development (R&D)
3.A Appendix: Miscellaneous Derivations
3.A.1 Three Dimensional Representation of the Simple
Linear Model
3.A.2 More Results on Summations
3.A.3 Derivation of the Normal Equations by Least Squares
3.A.4 Best Linear Unbiased Estimation (BLUE) and the
Gauss-Markov Theorem
3.A.5 Maximum Likelihood Estimation
3.A.6 Derivation of the Variances of the Estimators
3.A.7 Unbiased Estimator of the Variance of the Error Term
3.A.8 Derivation of Equation 3.25
3.A.9 Derivation of Equation 3.26a
3.A.10 Proof that rsquare(x,y) = Rsquared for a Simple
Regression Model
3.A.11 Derivation of Equation 3.28
3.A.12 Derivation of Equation 3.29
If time permits, part of Chapter 4 will also be covered.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The logo at the beginning was designed by Tim Kane and the course description in the table was designed by Sue Papp.