Mark J. Machina

                       Department of Economics

                       University of California, San Diego

                       La Jolla, CA   92093-0508

                              (858) 534-2391

                                     mmachina@ucsd.edu             curriculum vitae

                                                    ECON 117       ECON 100BH       ECON 281 ECON 87

 

Surveys, Discussions and Encyclopedia Articles

Decision Making in the Presence of Risk Science (May 1, 1987) (reprinted in...)

Choice under Uncertainty: Problems Solved and Unsolved Journal of Economic Perspectives (Summer 1987) (reprinted in...)

Information and Decision Making (with Robin Hogarth, Kenneth MacCrimmon, John Roberts, Alvin Roth, Paul Slovic & Richard Thaler) Report of the Working Group on Information and Decision Making for the National Research Council’s Ten-Year Outlook on Research Opportunities in the Behavioral and Social Sciences, 1985 (reprinted in...)

States of the World and the State of Decision Theory in The Economics of Risk, ed. by D. Meyer, 2003

Choice under Uncertainty in Encyclopedia of Cognitive Science, ed. by Lynn Nadel, 2005

Non-Expected Utility Theory in Encyclopedia of Actuarial Science, ed. by J. Teugels and B. Sundt, 2004

Non-Expected Utility Theory in International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences, 2nd edition, 2008, ed. by William Darity, Jr.

Expected Utility Hypothesis in The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition, 2008, ed. by Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume (1st edition version reprinted in...)

Non-Expected Utility Theory in The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition, 2008, ed. by Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume

Risk (with Michael Rothschild) in The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition, 2008, ed. by Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume (1st edition version reprinted in...)

Robustifying the Classical Theory of Risk Preferences and Beliefs (my primary research agenda)

·     Robustifying the Analytics of the Objective Expected Utility Model:

 ‘Expected Utility’ Analysis without the Independence Axiom Econometrica (March 1982) (reprinted in...)

Comparative Statics and Non-Expected Utility Preferences Journal of Economic Theory (April 1989)

Non-Expected Utility and the Robustness of the Classical Insurance Paradigm Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory (June 1995) (reprinted in...)

·  Robustifying the Classical Characterization of Subjective Probability:

A More Robust Definition of Subjective Probability (with David Schmeidler) Econometrica (July 1992) (reprinted in...)

Bayes without Bernoulli: Simple Conditions for Probabilistically Sophisticated Choice (with David Schmeidler) Journal of Economic Theory (October 1995) (reprinted in...)

·  Robustifying the Choice-Theoretic Foundations of Objective Uncertainty:

Almost-Objective Uncertainty Economic Theory (July 2004)

·  Robustifying the Analytics of the Subjective Expected Utility Model:

 ‘Expected Utility/Subjective Probability’ Analysis without the Sure-Thing Principle or Probabilistic Sophistication Economic Theory (July 2005)

Rational Choice under Uncertainty

Dynamic Consistency and Non-Expected Utility Models of Choice under Uncertainty Journal of Economic Literature (December 1989) (reprinted in...)

Bounded Rationality Modeling (with Bertrand Munier, Reinhard Selten, D. Bouyssou, P. Bourgine, R. Day, N. Harvey, D. Hilton, Ph. Parker, J. Sterman, E. Weber, B. Wernerfelt & R. Wensley) Marketing Letters (August 1999)

Analysis of Non-Expected Utility Risk Preferences

A Stronger Characterization of Declining Risk Aversion Econometrica (July 1982)

Generalized Expected Utility Analysis and the Nature of Observed Violations of the Independence Axiom in Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory with Applications, ed. by B. Stigum and F. Wenstøp, 1983 (reprinted in...)

Attitudes Toward Risk: Further Remarks (with Hans Binswanger and Jaime Quizon) Economic Journal (March 1984)

Temporal Risk and the Nature of Induced Preferences Journal of Economic Theory (August 1984)

Stochastic Choice Functions Generated from Deterministic Preferences over Lotteries Economic Journal (September 1985) (reprinted in...)

The Ross Characterization of Risk Aversion: Strengthening and Extension (with William Neilson) Econometrica (September 1987)

Cardinal Properties of ‘Local Utility Functions’  in Risk, Decision and Rationality, ed. by Bertrand Munier, 1988

Two Errors in the ‘Allais Impossibility Theorem’ Theory and Decision (May 1995)    (The Two Errors: A Summary)

Payoff Kinks in Preferences over Lotteries Journal of Risk and Uncertainty (November 2001)

Risk, Ambiguity, and the Rank-Dependence Axioms American Economic Review (March 2009)

Event-Separability in the Ellsberg Urn Economic Theory (October 2011)

Ambiguity Aversion with Three or More Outcomes American Economic Review, forthcoming.

Other Topics in Risk and Risk Aversion

On Path Independent Randomized Choice (with Robert Parks) Econometrica (September 1981)

Rational Decision Making vs. Rational Decision Modeling? Journal of Mathematical Psychology (October 1981) (reprinted in...)

Flexibility and the Demand for Risky Assets Economics Letters (Vol. 10, 1982)

The Incentive Implications of Incomplete Insurance: The Multiplicative Case (with Takatoshi Ito) Economics Letters (Vol. 13, 1983)

Moment Preferences and Polynomial Utility (with Sigrid Müller) Economics Letters (Vol. 23, 1987)

Increasing Risk: Some Direct Constructions (with John Pratt) Journal of Risk and Uncertainty (March 1997)

Econometrics

Forecasting and Decision Theory (with Clive Granger) in Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Vol. 1, ed. by Graham Elliott, Clive Granger and Allan Timmermann, 2006

Structural Attribution of Observed Volatility Clustering (with Clive Granger) Journal of Econometrics (November-December 2006)

Economic History

On the Profitability of Russian Serfdom (with Evsey Domar) Journal of Economic History (December 1984) (reprinted in...)

News, Gossip & Games

Clive & Rob’s Excellent Adventure (An account of the 2003 Nobel Prize Ceremonies)

Barrett and Arntzenius’s Infinite Decision Puzzle Theory and Decision (November 2000)

“Machina's Unceasingly Repeated Errors or Contradictions” (as dispassionately reported by Maurice Allais)

       Machina’s “Paralogisms, Sophism, Mistakes and Contractions”    

       “then Allais would turn on Machina”    

Underwater Basket Weaving    

Photos with some of his Heroes, Friends and Colleagues